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《Geographical Research》 2004-06
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Monte-Carlo simulation based approach for the study of SARS's spatial-temporal scenarios in Beijing

ZONG Yue-guang, WANG Li, QU Xiu-li (The Department of Urban and Resources, Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)  
This paper improves a technique by using Monte Carlo simulation approach integrated with GIS to study the spatial-temporal uncertainty of SARS in Beijing. The output relative indexes from the sensitive analysis show that five districts, Haidian with the value of 10.66667, Chaoyang with the value of 6.69231, Dongcheng with the value of 5.97436, Xicheng with the value of 4.17949 and Tongzhou with the value of 3.64103, together contributed 72.8% of the total frequency distribution in the case of Beijing’s SARS. However, Haidian District alone presented almost 25% of the total frequency distribution. The frequency distribution of SARS’s series was a typical lognormal distribution. These facts indicated that the early-stage timely warning of SARS and the blocking transmission of infection for the public are of the first importance. The spatial distributions of SARS's effects significantly presented different shapes of circles. However, the shapes of the circles were most likely a kind of ellipse that had long axis extending from the northwest to the southeast in Beijing. It is suggested that the preventive system of SARS can be served as several circles from the center to the fringe when new outbreaks of SARS occur.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目 (4 0 1710 2 9;4 0 4 710 5 8);; 南京大学科研基金资助项目 (0 2 0 90 0 4 10 3)
【CateGory Index】: R181.3
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