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Spatial pattern and heterogeneity risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Guangzhou

CAO Zhi-dong1,2,WANG Jin-feng1,GAO Yi-ge1,2,HAN Wei-guo3,Feng Xiao-lei4,ZENG Guang5(1.State Key Laboratory of Resources & Environmental Information System,Institute of GeographicSciences & Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China ;2.Institute of Automation,CAS,Beijing 100080,China;3.Center for SpatialInformation Science and System,George Mason University;4.Resources and Environment Science,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050016,China;5.Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)  
Hospital infection has proved to be one of the most important routes of SARS transmission,and nearly a quarter of those infected are medical staff in Guangzhou in South China.However,its potential to control epidemic of SARS is unclear.Detailed records of this epidemic have allowed the development of spatial analysis methods that capture the main features of epidemic spread in space,and the impact of SARS accepting hospitals.SARS epidemic comes from Guangzhou City in South China.SARS epidemic in Guangzhou is a sample to study epidemic's sudden outbreak in urban areas,which can help us to understand which is the risk factor that affects epidemic process and how epidemic spreads.Spatial points are gained according to the family addresses of SARS infectors.Mathematical models are used to express quantitatively the transmission center and confidence interval of epidemic areas.Spatial pattern of different SARS infection groups and their change are analyzed compared with that of SARS accepting hospital weighted with the number of accepted SARS patients.The result shows that there is a clear trend for the transmission center to approach the center of SARS accepting hospital,and their patterns are consistent with that of SARS accepting hospitals.Medical personnel and the other infectors are affected equally by SARS accepting hospitals.SARS accepting hospitals have an impact on the SARS epidemic in Guangzhou,which experiences a strong-weak-strong process.This paper contributes to a better understanding of the spatial spread for SARS and other new infectious diseases in urban areas,and provides a support for public health contingency plans.
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