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《Geographical Research》 2010-09
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Susceptibility assessment of secondary landslides triggered by earthquakes:A case study of northern Wenchuan

TAO Shu1,2,HU De-yong1,2,ZHAO Wen-ji1,2,FAN Yi-da3,WANG Zhi-heng2(1.Key Laboratory of Integrated Disaster Assessment and Risk Governance of the Ministry of Civil Affairs,Beijing 100048,China;2.College of Resources Environment & Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;3.National Disaster Reduction Center,Ministry of Civil Affairs of China,Beijing 100053,China)  
The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,which occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province,collapsed a great many houses and injured thousands of people.Undoubtedly,it can be predicted that secondary earthquake landslides,as a common secondary hazard triggered by earthquakes,will draw much attention during a long time after earthquake due to the severe geological hazard.In order to remove threat from the secondary disasters effectively,this study used remote sensing and GIS to generate susceptibility maps,taking the case of northern Wenchuan County.Seven factors affecting landslide occurrence have been taken into account in the susceptibility assessment,including elevation,slope,aspect,lithology,seismic intensity,distance to faults and rivers.According to the probability that predicts the possibility of landslide occurrence by information value method and logistic regression separately,the study area was ultimately categorized into five classes,namely,"extremely low","low","moderate","high" and "very high".The result has proved to reflect closely the spatial distributions of landslides in the study area.Subsequently,these two probabilistic and statistical approaches for estimating the susceptible areas of the study area of Wenchuan County were tested.It can be concluded that the predictive capability of logistic regression model appears to be more accurate compared to information value method.It is mainly due to the fact that logistic regression could reduce effectively the subjectivity in selection of evaluation factors and weight assignment.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901227);; 国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目(2007AA120306)
【CateGory Index】: P642.22
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