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《Geographical Research》 2014-07
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Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River basin

ZHANG Zhengtao;GAO Chao;LIU Qing;ZHAI Jianqing;WANG Yanjun;SU Buda;TIAN Hong;College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University;Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Anhui Provincial Climate center;  
A new method is used to study the risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return period in the Huaihe River Basin. The method is to make the maximum amount of daily precipitation(PMP), which is regarded as one of the major hazard factors, combined with other 11 kinds of second indexes to carry on the risk assessment. PMP is obtained by using different types of distribution functions fitting annual maximum sequence. The investigations show that the high-risk areas of flood disaster of the Huaihe River Basin are located in Mengwa detention area, Funan County, Anhui Province and the lowlands around it, the moderate-highrisk areas are in the central and southwestern parts of the basin and parts of the eastern basin.The southern-central and northern parts of the basin are low-risk areas. With the return period from 10 a to 1000 a, discrete spatial distributions of PMP in the southwestern basin are greatly increasing. In the eastern basin, the risk is gradually weakened. Moreover, the spatial distribution of flood disaster risk in the Huaihe River Basin shows that the moderate-high-risk areas remain stable. The high-risk and low-risk areas decrease gradually and the ratio of the total area decreases from 8.3% and 42.4% to 3.2% and 30.8%, respectively. The values of high-risk areas keeps invariant but regional concentration has become more obvious. For moderate-risk areas,the ratio increases from 28.3% to 40.9%. Overall, the changes of spatial distribution patterns present that major disasters have reduced but small disasters occurred frequently in the eastern basin. The high-risk areas of the western basin are vulnerable to flood, while the northern and central-southern parts of the basin are relatively safe.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)(2012CB955903);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41101035);; 教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金(20113424120002 20123424110001);; 淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM201303)
【CateGory Index】: P426.616
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