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《Proceedings of Electric Power System and Automation》 2003-06
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STUDY ON THE VARIED WEIGHT SYNTHESIS MODEL OF MID-LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM

Gu Jie (Department of Electrical Engineering in Shanghai JiaoTong University, Shanghai 200240, China)  
Mid-long term electric load forecasting is the foundation and premise of power system security dispatch,economic operation,optimization planning and scientific management,its precision is quite important to each department of national economy,so research on mid-long term load forecasting method is valuable both on theory and practice.Whereas there are some characteristic within mid-long term load forecasting such as the long study time span,the complex physical factors with large uncertainty which have great influence on load forecasting,and the possible original error occurring in basic data of forecasting,furthermore there are fixed weight of synthesis forecasting method used now,a varied weight synthesis model is presented in this paper to reflect the change law of power load better.A detailed example analysis could fully illustrate the validity of the method.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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