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《Proceedings of Electric Power System and Automation》 2004-02
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Upper Limit Estimating of Short Term Load Forecasting Precision by Time Series Analysis

YANG Zheng-ling, ZHANG Guang-tao, LIN Kong-yuan (School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)  
After estimating the precision upper limit of short term load forecasting in time series,from the viewpoints of Chaitin theorem and the sampling theorem some conclusions could be got. First, the upper limit of load forecasting precision sampled at a certain frequency,can only be estimated from another time series of the same load sampled at a higher frequency.Second, using low pass filters to pick up the high frequency component for estimating the upper limit can get a more general limit and avoid the difficulty of validity verifying of the time series models.Last, an upper limit of forecasting precision depends essentially on the forecasting method,so the given load records can have different upper limits when different forecasting means are used.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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