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《Proceedings of Electric Power System and Automation》 2004-06
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Study on the Model of Mid-long Term Load Forecasting for Power System Based on Matter Element

GU Jie(School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)  
This paper presents a new method used in mid-long term load forecast combining each unique characteristic of power system and ME(matler element), in addition, a new thought for practical usage of ME in power system is explored. Firstly tec hniques of Stepwise Regression and Analytic Hierarchy Process are used to determ ine the weight of each factor affecting load demand. Secondly ME model are found ed with selected affecting factors,power demand and its grossing ratio by funda mental of ME. Then the features of selected affecting factors and ratio of load grossing in each classification are identified by analyzing history data with Sy stematic Cluster method. Owing to appropriate dependent functions of ME and Grey Model, the grossing pattern can be revealed by model recognition technique, thu s the load demand can be forecasted. The successful result of the application of this method in a certain area of China, proves the validity of the approach.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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