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《Acta Botanica Boreali-occidentalia Sinica》 2004-03
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Development trend of Gansu's ecological footprint and ecological capacity

YUE Dong xia 1,LI Zi zhen 2* ,HUI Cang 1 (1 School of Life Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;2 Department of Mathematics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)  
The ecological footprint method is a biophysical assessment method of the human appropriation of ecological capacity,for measuring the ecological imperative of sustainability.Human consume the products and services of nature;every one of us has an impact on the earth.Does the human load stay within global carrying capacity?The concept of ecological footprint has been designed to answer this question,and is based on the understanding that every individual human appropriates a share of the productive and assimilative capacity of the biosphere.An ecological footprint corresponds to this exclusive biologically productive area that a defined population uses for all its resource requirements and wastes,and is expressed in terms of bio productive space,with world average productivity.Humanitys footprint or its aggregate ecological demand can only temporarily exceed the productive and assimilative capacity of the biosphere without liquidating and weakening the natural capital on which humanity depends fundamentally.Therefore,accounting tools for quantifying humanitys use of nature are essential for overall assessments of human impact as well as for planning specific steps towards a sustainable future.The ecological footprint method presents a simple framework for national capital account.The ecological footprint is a function of population and per capital material consumption.The calculation of the model requires incorporation of relevant income,prevailing values,social cultural factors and ecosystem functions in the estimate would lead to intractable information and data processing problems.Estimating the ecological footprint of a defined population is a multistage process.In this paper,we gather the multistage model into following two equations. EF=N·ef,ef=∑ni=1(aa i)=∑ni=1(c i/p i),EC=N×ec,ec=∑6j=1a j×r j×y j .The per capita footprint ( ef ) is the sum of land appropriated for each purchased goods ( aa i ),which is calculated by dividing average consumption of each goods ( c i ) by the average productivity of each goods ( p i ),the population footprint ( EF ) can then be obtained by multiplying the per capital footprint ( ef ) by the population size ( N ).The per capita ecological capacity ( ec ) is reality the sum of land appropriated using equivalence and yield factor,the population ecological capacity ( EC ) is can then be obtained as EF .Types of ecologically productive lands are mainly including arable land,fossil energy,residential area,pasture and forest.We calculated the ecological footprint of Gansu province using existing data for long periods of time:1995~2001.The ecological footprint ledger is composed of three main sections.The first ledger is basic biotic resources consumption including its sub products,the second ledger is energy consumption,the third ledger is trade balance.Trade balance through more detailed trade flow analyses can mitigate the influence of import and export product to consumption varies.Every result is presented from Table 1 to Table 2.The paper analyse development trend of Gansus per capita ecological footprint and ecological capacity 1991~2001 and 1991~2010.The estimates show that the per capita ecological footprint of Gansu province increases with years from 1.009 hm 2 in 1991 to 1.369 hm 2 in 2001,the per capita ecological capacity of Gansu province decrease with years from 1.348 hm 2 in 1991 to 0.994 hm 2 in 2001.The per capita ecological footprint of the last period forecast will be 2.65 hm 2,and the per capita ecological capacity of the last period forecast will be 1.06 hm 2 in 2010.The ecological deficit of Gansu province increase with years from 0.031 hm 2 in 1991 to 0.19 hm 2 in 2001.Above all,we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the ecological footprint model,points out research needs for improvement of the analysis,and suggests potential new applications in the last section of this paper.For example,we analyze an impact of science and technology factor ( S j ) on the eclological capacity,and modify the ecologica
【Fund】: 国家基础研究重大项目前期专项 2 0 0 2 CCA0 0 3 0 0 ;; 教育部科技重点项目 0 1172 ;; 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目 2 0 0 2 0 73 0 0 17 ;; 甘肃省自然科学基金项目 ZS0 3 1-A2 5 -0 3 6-D
【CateGory Index】: X26
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