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《大气科学进展(英文版)》 2011-02
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Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

FENG Lei 1,2 , ZHOU Tianjun 1 , WU Bo 1 , Tim LI 3 , and Jing-Jia LUO 4 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 3 IPRC and University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA 4 Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan  
Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 (equivalent to 40 km). Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.
【Fund】: supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program(Grant No. 2007BAC29B03);; China-UK-Swiss Adaptingto Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science;; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40890054)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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