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STATIC AND DYNAMIC REGULARITY OF LANDSLIDES AND SPACE-TIME PROGNOSIS OF SLOPE INSTABILITY

Yan Tongzhen Wu Faquan Yin Kunlong (China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074)  
Based on the field mapping and laboratory experiment and analytic researches made in the recent years,the paper states static-dynamic regularity of landslides . Aiming at "static" regularity of slide groups, the certain basic fundamentals and methods of quantitative space prognosis of slope instability are demonstrated; pointed at the dynamic regularity of slide unit or groups, some principles and techniques of quantitative time prognosis of the occurrence of landslide hazards are discussed. From the viewpoint of system theory,linking characters and func-tions of the basic dividing work and united mode of three - type mathematic mo3 dels-determinated, stochastic and grey system for quantitative space-time prognosis of landslides are generalized. As the examples of metamorphic rock landslides in south-east Shanxi and of those ones being composed of Mesozoic sand-clay rocks along the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River, the paper has discussed the key researched results of space-time prognosis of slope instability. At last, some important conclusions are summarized.
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