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《Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences》 1989-02
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NEW MODE OF FORECASTING LAND SUBSIDENCEREGULARITY

Yan Tongzhen (China University of Consciences, Wunan 430074)  
In this paper, he present general research and control remedy for land subsidence were discussed, and the related problems which should be studied for some further researches were presented . Several sedimentary modes and subsidence mechanisms were generalized. As the examples of the largest scale subsidence in Central Valley, California, USA recorded in the world and the smaller scale one in Ninbo city, Zhejiang, China, the emphasis on their dynamic regularity war; demonstrated generally. The theorem of biological growth model by Verhulst and the theory of Grey control system by Deng Julong were cited; and both of con-trolled forecast and forecasted control for the examples were performed.The researched results have denoted that under certain controlled conditions, the land subsidence life-span of both examples may be at least 140 years and 90 years respectively; and in case of controls being kept severely, Ninbo city will be expected to be prevented from subsiding under the sea level.
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