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《Earth Science(Journal of China University of Geosciences)》 2007-03
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Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Resources

HAO Zhen-chun1,LI Li1,WANG Jia-hu1,WANG Zhen-hua2,SHI Xue-li31.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing210098,China2.Shanxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Taiyuan030002,China3.The National Climate Centre of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing100081,China  
In recent years,climate change,with its far-reaching influences,has emerged as a popular issue.Among the various aspects of climate change,its impact on the terrestrial water cycle has been regarded as one of the most important issues,because it directly affects human settlement and ecosystem.The paper reviews previous studies first,and then pointed out their weakness and future research focuses.As practices,the impacts of climate change on surface runoff and water resources in Shanxi Province and the head region of Yellow River were studied here.And results of 7 Global Climate Models(GCMs) in the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from IPCC Data Distribution Center web page was employed as future potential climate change.Different distributed hydrologic models based on local underlying surface were developed in order to evaluate the impacts on water resources.Future potential climate change of Shanxi Province were assessed by integrating outputs of GCMs,whereas which of the head region of Yellow River were come from results of different GCMs directly.Conclusions show that both precipitation and temperature of Shanxi Province would be increasing before 2050,but the surface water resources would increase before 2030 and then decrease,because the impact of future temperature increase on runoff would be less than that of precipitation increase before 2030 but more than it after 2030.And on the head region of Yellow River,temperature and precipitation would also increase.But the quantity of runoff would be decreasing in next 100 years for the region belongs to high and cold areas,which would make the impact of temperature increase on runoff larger than that of precipitation.And the distribution of runoff would be more even in years but more uneven among years,the latter may imply the higher possibility of drought and flood.
【Fund】: 中国气象局气候变化专项(No.CCSF2006-36);; 山西省气象局开放式研究基金项目(No.SX052002);; 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(No.20060294003)
【CateGory Index】: P333
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