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《Atmospheric Science Research and Application》 2010-02
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Evaluation on the Precipitation Forecast of Shanghai Regional Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System during May-September 2009

XU Tong LI Jia WANG Xiaofeng CHEN Baode YANG Yuhua (Shanghai Typhoon Institute,Shanghai 200030)  
With the fast development of numerical weather prediction(NWP) technology,the quantitative precipitation forecasts of NWP models have become one of major bases for everyday operation weather forecast in most countries all over the world.The precipitation forecast capability of Shanghai Regional Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System from May to September in 2009 is evaluated by traditional quantitative precipitation evaluation technology and Methods for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE).The result of the verification shows that the model made a good performance for the forecast capability of the rain or no-rain.TS scores decline as rainfall increases.False alarm ratio is higher than missing ratio.According to the attributes of MODE,models have precisely forecasted the precipitation distributed location as a whole but the intensity of forecast objects was stronger than the observed,especially in the center of rain area.
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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