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《Progress in Geophysics》 2015-01
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Earthquake prediction methods Ⅲ:correlation between tidal and earthquake

ZHAO Yong-hong;ZHANG Dan;WANG Hang;School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University;  
This paper discussed the possibility of earthquake prediction by tidal observation method by analysis of the correlation between the physical mechanisms of tidal and earthquake.First,the stress-strain conditions for earthquake to occur were introduced according to mechanical process of earthquake.From the observation and result of rock mechanics experiments as well as seismic stress calculation,the strength of crustal rock is between 10~10~3 MPa,and the strength of fault medium is between 1~10~2 MPa.Then,the possibility for tidal to trigger the earthquake was analyzed by comparing the global crustal deformation value along the active fault induced by tidal to the critical deformation value for earthquake to happen.Analysis shows that the order of the surface strain corresponding to tidal is around 10~(-8),induced elastic stress in rock media is around 1.6×10~(-2) MPa.This load level is not enough to trigger earthquake.Finally,combined with the tidal observation,we demonstrated that there is no significant correlation between seismic activity and cyclical change of tidal.Tidal may play a role in triggering earthquake in rock which has fault in certain direction before breaking occurs.However,there is no obvious correlation among this effect and time,place,magnitude of seismic earthquake.Therefore,tidal can't be used as an earthquake prediction method.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40872133 40821062 41274094)资助
【CateGory Index】: P315.728
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