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A STUDY ON PREDICTION OF THE ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION IN 1998

WANG HUI JUN (Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)  
The prediction of the anomalous climate and general circulation for the summer of 1998 was studied by using the climate model developed in Japan. Quantitative verification on the accuracy of the prediction on the at mospheric circulation was performed by applying the correlation analysis. Results show that predictive skill is quite high. It is also indicated that both the SST anomalies and the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring are important for the anomalous rainfall over China and the anomalous atmospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere during summer. The impacts of the initial atmospheric anomalies on the summer circulation in Southern Hemisphere is far from significant. The initial anomalous atmospheric circulation is responsible for about half of the total precipitation anomalies in South China.
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