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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2004-05
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MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE TREND OF CHINA UNDER SRES A2 SCENARIO

JIANG Da-Bang 1,2 WANG Hui-Jun1 LANG Xian-Mei11 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China  
Based on the outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario, we analyze the decadal climate change trend of China during 2001 to 2030. It is revealed that the surface temperature, the maximum temperature, and the minimum temperature over China will rise by 0.3-2.3℃, 0.1-2.0℃, and 0.5-2.7℃, respectively, and enhancement magnitude is generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually enlarges with time march. In addition, the warming magnitude of variables mentioned above will be larger in winter than synchronizing summer, and the increase of the surface minimum temperature will be larger than the maximum temperature in the corresponding period, which leads to the smaller intra-seasonal variation of the surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies over East Asia in winter will be confined within -1.0hPa to 0.4hPa and exhibit a zonal band-shape distribution, with the positive (negative) values in south (north) parts. Moreover, the anomaly magnitude will become larger, and zero contour line will move southward with time running, at the same time with larger negative values in Northeast, North, and West China. Sea level pressure anomalies in summer will resemble that in winter. The results also show that summer precipitation will increase by 0.1~0.8mm/d over most parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Southeast China, and the Hetao region during 2001 to 2030.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KZCX3 SW 2 2 1);; 国家杰出青年基金项目 ( 4 0 12 5 0 14 );; 国家“十五”科技攻关项目( 2 0 0 1BA611B 0 1)联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P46
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