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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2006-06
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Application of close degree to classified prediction of geomagnetic disturbances

WANG Jing~(1,2),FENG Xue-Shang~11 SIGMA Weather Group,State Key Laboratory of Space Weather,Center for Space Science and Applied Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China2 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China  
Using the close degree and membership function and comprehensive evaluation in fuzzy mathematics,in conjunction with the solar observation of CME and IPS observation for the interplanetary solar storms caused by CME,we present a close degree prediction method for geomagnetic disturbance events caused by coronal mass ejection(CME)-shock waves identified by IPS observation.Based on the analysis of 74 geomagnetic disturbance events caused by CME-shock waves identified by IPS observation during 1997~2003,five clustering indexes and their weighted fuzzy sets are constructed.Typical fuzzy sets of small,moderate,and intense geomagnetic disturbance events are built based on comprehensive evaluation.By constructing the respective fuzzy set of each event,based on the close degree between the fuzzy set and typical fuzzy sets,the prediction for different geomagnetic disturbance caused by the events can be made.Main results are as follows:For the 74 geomagnetic disturbance events,the prediction accuracy is 53.3% for small geomagnetic disturbance;100% for moderate geomagnetic disturbance;and 90.20% for intense geomagnetic disturbance.The average precision of this method is 84%.This method is an effective application of fuzzy mathematics to studying the geomagnetic disturbance.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40523006 40336053 40374056 40536029)资助
【CateGory Index】: P318
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 4 Hits
1 WEI FENG-SI(Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica);PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF PREDICTING GEOMAGNETIC SSC BY USING IPS OBSERVATIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1984-05
2 Wei Feng-si(Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica);THE BLAST WAVE PROPAGATING IN A MOVING MEDIUM WITH VARIABLE DENSITY[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1982-01
3 Wei Feng-si Cai Hong-chang(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academa Sinica, Beijing);PRIMARY APPLICATION OF THE MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE PREDICTIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1990-01
4 Cai Hong-chang Wei Feng-si(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academia Sinica, Beijing);PRELIMINARY APPLICATION OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN THE FLARE-GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ANALYSES[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1992-01
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 WEI FENG-SI(Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica);PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF PREDICTING GEOMAGNETIC SSC BY USING IPS OBSERVATIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1984-05
2 XU WEN-YAO(Intitute of Geophysics, Academia Sinica, Beijng 100101, China );ADVANCES ON GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND STUDIES IN CHINA[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1997-S1
3 WEI FENG-SI (Center for Space Science and Applied Research,Numerical Laboratory of Heliospheric Physics,Beijing 100080);BASIC PROGRESS FOR HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS IN CHINA[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1994-S1
4 WEI FENGSI (Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica, Beiiing);STATISTIC STUDY ON ASYMMETRIC PROPAGATION OF FLARE-ASSOCIATED INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVES[J];中国科学A辑(英文版);1988-04
5 Wei Feng-si (Institute of Space Physics, Academia. Sinica);THE BLAST WAVE PROPAGATING IN A VARIABLE DENSITY MEDIUM WITH RING-MAGNETIC FIELD[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1983-02
6 Wei Feng-si Cai Hong-chang(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academa Sinica, Beijing);PRIMARY APPLICATION OF THE MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE PREDICTIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1990-01
7 Cai Hong-chang Wei Feng-si(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academia Sinica, Beijing);PRELIMINARY APPLICATION OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN THE FLARE-GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ANALYSES[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1992-01
8 Gu Hui-cheng Wei Feng-si Lu Jian-yong(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080);NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF PROPAGATION AND OVERLAP OF INTERPLANETARY SHOCK[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1992-04
9 GAO Yuan1,2 FENG Xueshang1 1 (Laboratory for Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080) 2 (Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences);Predicting the 1AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;2005-06
10 WANG Jing~(1,2) FENG Xueshang~1 ~1(State Key Laboratory of Space Weather,Center for Space Science and Applied Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080) ~2( Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences);Prediction Method of CME Associated Geomagnetic Disturbances Based on Fuzzy Mathematics[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;2007-06
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 WEI FENG-SI(Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica);PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF PREDICTING GEOMAGNETIC SSC BY USING IPS OBSERVATIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1984-05
2 Wei Feng-si(Institute of Space Physics, Academia Sinica);THE BLAST WAVE PROPAGATING IN A MOVING MEDIUM WITH VARIABLE DENSITY[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1982-01
3 Wei Feng-si Cai Hong-chang(Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Academa Sinica, Beijing);PRIMARY APPLICATION OF THE MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE PREDICTIONS[J];Chinese Journal of Space Science;1990-01
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