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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2008-05
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Retrieval of the non-linear dynamic forecast model of El Nino/La Nina index based on the genetic algorithm optimization

ZHANG Ren1,2,HONG Mei1,2,WANG Hui-Zan1,CHEN Yi-De1,WANG Yan-Lei1 1 Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China2 LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China  
Based on the 1958~1995 global month-average SSTA field reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR,using dynamical system retrieval idea and GA Genetic Algorithm approach,the parameters of El Nino/La Nina exponential dynamical forecast model are optimized and the non-linear dynamical model of Nino3 SSTA index is reconstructed from above SST data.The analytical result and forecast test show that GA has the advantage of global optimum search and parallel calculation,which enables objective and effective retrieval of SST index dynamical forecast model.So it can effectively forecast the Nino3 SST index and El Nino/La Nina event and afford useful reference to El Nino/La Nina forecast.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40375019);; 中国科学院大气物理研究所联合创新青年学者计划资助
【CateGory Index】: P732.6
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