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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2011-09
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The 18. 6-year periodicity of great earthquakes

DU Pin-Ren~1,ZHAO Jun-Meng~2,GAO Xiang-Lin~11 Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China2 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China  
Dividing the world into 15 study areas and using the earthquake catalogue of M_W≥7.0 during 1900 ~ 2009,we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between seismicity of each area and the period of lunar nodal motion.The result shows that among the 15 areas,10 areas exhibit an 18.6-year cycle of great earthquakes in statistical sense,which consists of a 12.4-year active section and a 6.2-year quiet section.In the eastern,northern,southern and western areas of the Circum-Pacific seismic belt,such a periodicity is present and their active sections have certain regularity.In terms of seismic events during the sixth cycle (1991~ 2009),this study has tested the stability and applicability of the 18.6-year periodicity derived from earlier five cycles (1900~ 1990).It is found that most of periodicities are stable in the regions with such characters.The possible mechanisms of the 18.6-year periodicity are as follows:(1)Earthquakes are modulated by the 18.6-year tide via day and half-day tides.(2)Effect of fluid tide in upper mantle (tide within the Earth).And (3)earthquakes are dictated by 18.6-year tide through variation of Earth rotation.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究项目(973)(2008CB425704)资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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