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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2018-01
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Seismic hazard assessment for the Red River fault:insight from Coulomb stress evolution

YIN FengLing;JIANG ChangSheng;HAN LiBo;ZHANG Huai;ZHANG Bei;Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration;Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;  
Historic strong earthquakes ruptured the northern segment of the Red River fault,while left a seismic gap in the middle segment.To better understand this seismicity pattern and assess the seismic hazard in this region,we investigated the evolution of Coulomb failure stress on the Red River fault since 1833 taking coseismic,postseismic and interseismic deformation into account based on a stratified viscoelastic earth model.In total,25 large earthquakes were analyzed.The results revealed that both the northern and the southern segments of the Red River fault are loaded,while the stress changes of the central segment remained negative in recent 180 years.This may contribute to the high level of seismicity near the northern and southern segments of the Red River fault and the low level of seismicity in the central segment.The combined prediction of the postseismic and interseismic stress changes on the fault over the next30 years suggests that this seismic gap of the central segment will be shortened gradually.The segments that surrounding Eryuan,between Dali and north of Dadoumen and south of Yuanjiangmay suffer high seismic risk due to the increased stress level.
【Fund】: 中国地震局地球物理研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(DQJB16B10);; 中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2015M580127)联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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