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《Acta Geoscientica Sinica》 2012-03
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A Predictive Study of the Hazardousness of Landslides in Loess Hilly Region Based on Rainfall Response:A Case Study of Linyou County,Baoji City

XIN Peng1,2),WU Shu-ren1,2),SHI Ju-song1,2),WANG Tao1,2),LIU Zhen3) 1) Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081;2) Key laboratory of Neotectonic Movement and Geohazards,Ministry of Land and Resources,Beijing 100081;3) Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering,Louisiana State University,Baton Rouge,LA 70803,USA  
Extreme rainfall may easily lead to mass landslide disasters,which,however,cannot be predicted as a monomer.To predict and evaluate the hazards of landslide disasters induced from different rainfall intensities in the loess hill regions,the authors analyzed the characteristics of rainfall intensity and landslide distribution on the basis of studying the characteristics of regional landslide disasters,introduced the principle of the infinite slope model and parameter selection by analyzing formation mechanism of landslides in loess-hilly areas induced by rainfall with Lingnan landslide as an example,completed quantitative studies of hazards of landslide disasters under four different rainfall conditions,i.e.,no rainfall,25 mm,50 mm and 75 mm respectively using GIS spatial modeling and analysis and analyzed their errors.The results show that:(1) landslide disasters in loess hilly areas are related to topography,mechanical properties of rock bodies and earth.Headward erosion of rainfall and surface water is macro background of developing landslide disasters.(2) Rainfalls in loess hilly areas such as Linyou County are prone to inducing shallow strata loess landslide,represented by loess mudflow and shallow landslides.(3) For the same amount of rainfall,different units in slope areas have different response mechanisms,and high risk zones,middle risk zones and low risk zones are generated in areas with significant differences.Under the four different rainfall conditions of no rainfall,25 mm,50 mm and 75 mm,watershed area in the middle,Tiantang Town in the north,and Zhangba Township are high risk zones which are prone to generating rainfall landslide disasters.(4) In high risk zones with rainfall induced disasters,the situation threatens safety of residents of nearby villages and small towns,and hence monitoring,warning and corresponding preventive measures should be taken.In middle risk zones,mass monitoring,preventing and warning measures should be taken in flood seasons.In low risk zones,people should be vigilant in preventing unexpected incidents in flood seasons.(5) The infinite model is fit for calculating shallow slides induced by rainfall,reflecting response to rainfall induced landslide disasters soundly.The derived hazard distribution meets actual conditions.The errors of calculating hazards are related to resolution of geographic base maps and selection of calculating parameters.
【Fund】: 国家自然基金项目(编号:40802085;41102165);; 科技部十二五科技支撑项目(编号:2012BAK10B02);; 中国地质科学院地质力学所基本科研业务费项目(编号:DZLXJK201111)联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P642.22
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