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《SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA》 2000-02
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Assessment and Comparison of Two Prediction Schemes of IAP PSSCA Part I: Precipitation

Zhao Yan, Lin Zhaohui, Li Xu and Yuan Chongguang (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)  
With the IAP Prediction System of Short-term Climate Anomaly (IAP PSSCA), two sets of seasonal and extra-seasonal ensemble hindcasts have been performed during the period of 1980~1994 in order to assess the prediction skill of the IAP PSSCA with two different schemes The difference of the two schemes is in the different version of AGCM used, with the IAP AGCM 1 1 in one scheme and the IAP AGCM 1 2 with an improved surface albedo parameterization in the other Comparisons of the hindcast results with the observations show that IAP PSSCA is capable of predicting the precipitation anomaly to some extent In the eastern China largely affected by Asian monsoon and SST anomalies, the prediction skill is relatively high, especially in the Southeastern China where the anomaly correlation coefficient can reach as high as 0 50 in the severe flood and drought years This may suggest that the possible mechanisms for these severe disasters have been well captured by the IAP PSSCA The prediction skill is higher for the modified model AGCM 1 2 as the model's climatological state is well simulated This indicates that models with reasonable land process will improve the prediction skill for short-term climate prediction
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目!4 950 50 70;; 国家科委攀登项目!95-预 -2 1“气候动力学和气候预测理论的研 究”资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.1
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