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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2004-05
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Simulation Tests of Temporal-Spatial Distributions of Extreme Temperatures over China Based on Probability Weighted Moments Estimation

Ding Yuguo 1), Liu Jifeng 1), and Zhang Yaocun 2)1) (Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044) 2) (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093)  
The simulation tests of temporal-spatial distributions of extreme temperatures over China to now and future climate based on Probability Weighted Moment(PWM) are finished by using Gumbel distributions. PWM is effective and is proximate to the Maximum likelihood (MxL) parameter estimation method, with which calcaulation is simplified and the fitting precision is improved. Random simulation experimentations about the probability characteristics of extreme high and low temperature in the future climatic scenario are carried out by using Monte Carlo Method on the background of globle warming. The results show that the probabilities of high and low extreme temperatrue of different sub-regions have its response features to change in the future climatic scenario that the globle mean temperature rises 1℃.
【Fund】: 河南省计委科技攻关项目“黄淮流域气象灾害监测预测技术方法研究” ( 95 0 8);; 南京气象学院自选项目共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P468
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