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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2006-02
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Research on Assessment of Model-Generated Sounding and Application in Forecasting Strong Convective Weather

CHEN Zi-Tong~(1),YAN Jing-Hua~(1),and SU Yao-Chi~(2)1 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 5100802 Jiangmen Meteorological Bureau,Jiangmen 529000  
Because of the shortage of data density of conventional sounding data and the quality problems of some sounding data,it is so important to pay attention to the application of model-generated sounding.After analysed mode-generated sounding and observation data in detail during the high frequency convective weather season(April and May) in South China,the direct assessment of model-generated sounding data shows that the error amount of forecast element on surface and high levels is bigger than middle levels,for example,forecast element of temperature at 700-hPa level is the best,and the element forecast of surface temperature is very sensitive and difficult.Based on error analysis of multiple stations and real time forecast in long period,the possible reason is discussed.Assessment of instability indexes also shows that the performance of those instability indexes which is only considered the mid-level elements is relatively steady,but some indexes which is considered surface elements might be relatively sensitive,and their quality could be greatly improved by adding surface observation data.Case study shows that hourly model-generated sounding data are proved to be very useful in strong convective weather forecast,such as CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy) index,it could be made good use of guiding to convective weather forecast.In the case study,hourly variation of four sounding stations data in South China is mainly analysed.The analysis shows that model-generated sounding data of the four stations(Lianping,Qingyuan,Yangjiang and Hong Kong) are very close to the corresponding observation value after added surface observation,and those model-generated sounding data of hourly forecast really enriches a lot of variation details which observation could not gave us,which details is consistent very well with the occurring of strong convective storm.Case study also shows that the fine features of afternoon storm and morning storm could be obtained by using model-generated sounding data,and these features are very important for forecasting severe storm in a few hours later.Field distribution analysis shows that the change of CAPE index could help us forecasting convective weather that takes place two or three hours later and some indexes only considered mid-level element such as K index and SI(Showalter Index) are very useful for very short range(212 hours) forecasting.There are a lot of cases that mesoscale convective systems derived from terrain-effect,which could be successfully simulated by a mesoscale numerical model, but for strong convective storms derived from large-scale weather systems,it would become very complicated,one reason might be that the initial data for mesoscale numerical model is not completely proper,another reason might be due to mesoscale numerical model,for example subgrid scale parameterization scheme is not perfect,so at present time,it might be the right way to forecast strong convective storm by combining model-generated sounding with conventional surface observation,radar echo and satellite image data.
【Fund】: 科技部基础条件平台项目2003DIB4J145
【CateGory Index】: P456
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