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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2009-01
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Projection and Evaluation of the Precipitation Extremes Indices over China Based on Seven IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models

JIANG Zhihong1,CHEN Weilin1,SONG Jie2,1,and WANG Ji11 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210044 2 Northern Illinois University,USA  
Climatology of the observed daily precipitation extreme indices(SDII,simple daily intensity index;CDD,the maximum number of consecutive dry days;R10,number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm;R5d,maximum 5-day precipitation total;R95t,fraction of total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile of the climatological distribution for wet day amounts) at 550 stations in China during 1961-2000 is used to evaluate the simulation ability of 7 IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models,the projected change of the precipitation extreme indices over China under IPCC SRES A2、 A1B and B1 is also studied.The results show that the state-of-the-art IPCC AR4 models can simulate the spatial distributions and the linear trends of precipitation extremes well.The multi-model ensemble(MME) shows the best skill,but both the MME and single model fail to simulate the interannual variability and have large biases,such as there are excessive extreme precipitation over the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau while in the monsoon regions the modeled intensity of precipitation extremes is lower than the observation.In the 21st century the precipitation will become more "extreme",there would be an overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of China under a warming environment,and the change scope is scaled to the emissions scenarios.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目40675043、40875058;; 江苏省高校自然科学重大基础研究项目07KJA17020;; 江苏省气象灾害重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)项目KLME050209
【CateGory Index】: P463
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9 Lang Xianmei, Wang Huijun, and Jiang Dabang(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);A Study of the Impact of Initial Atmospheric Anomalies on Extraseasonal Short-term Climate Prediction[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2004-02
10 GAO Xue-Jie~(1),XU Ying~(1),ZHAO Zong-Ci~(1),Jeremy S.PAL~(2), and Filippo GIORGI~(2)1 Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 1000812 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics,Trieste,Italy;Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Topography on the Numerical Simulation of East Asian Precipitation[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2006-02
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