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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2010-02
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Projection of Wind Speed Changes in China in the 21st Century by Climate Models

JIANG Ying1,2,3,4,LUO Yong1,2,3,4,and ZHAO Zongci1,3,4 1 National Climate Center,Beijing 100081 2 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044 3 Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment,Beijing 100081 4 Laboratory for Climate Studies,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081  
19 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)AR4(Fourth Assessment Report)climate models with the human emission of SRES(IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)A2,A1B and B1 have been employed to project the annual,seasonal and monthly wind speeds over the three sub-regions of China and the entire China for 2000-2099.The study also adds the projections of a new coupling climate model,BCC_CSM1.0.1,which was developed for IPCC AR5.Therefore,20 climate models have been used in this research.As projected by 20 climate models with SRES A2,A1B,and B1,(1)the annual mean wind speeds in China for the 21st century decrease slightly,especially for SRES A2.(2)Among the four seasons,the wind speeds in winter decrease in the whole China and the three sub-regions.It is because the winter monsoon over East Asia weakens due to the global warming.The wind speed in summer over most of China increases as projected by a number of climate models.It is associated with the stronger summer monsoon over East Asia in the 21st century as projected by the climate models with SRES scenarios.(3)Compared with the model simulations for 1980-1999,the annual mean wind speeds during 2011-2030 decrease slightly for SRES A2 and do not change for SRES A1B and B1,respectively.The wind speeds during 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 for the three scenarios decrease more obviously than 1980-1999 and 2011-2030,respectively.(4)The wind speeds in winter(summer)for the three periods decrease(increase)relative to 1980-1999.(5)The geographical distributions of wind speed changes are different in winter and summer in comparison with 1980-1999.In summer,the increasing wind speeds are found over northeastern,northern,and central China.There are not obvious changes in other regions.In winter,the decreasing wind speeds over most of China are noticed,except for northern Northeast China and southeastern Tibet.More than 50% of the models project the patterns of wind changes conformably.It has a certain reliability.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200806009;; 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会和财政部之“风能详查和评价工作”和欧盟-中国能源和环境项目EuropeAid/123310/DR/CN
【CateGory Index】: P425.4
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