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《SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA》 1995-02
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Detection of Abrupt Changes and Trend Prediction of the Air Temperature in China, the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe

Wei Fengying and Cao Hongxing(Chinese Academy Of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)  
Abrupt changes of yearly air temperature series in China, the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe are detected with a statistical test in this paper. It turns out that an abrupt change from a warm period to a cold one of the temperature in China occurred during the end of the 1940s and the beginning of 1950s, and tWo abrupt changes of the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe also happened both in the 1890s and the 1920s. Meanwhile, it is found that the abrupt change indexes of the three temperature series have significant periodicity. The results of predictions for independent observations show that the models upon several periods, which are divided from the temperature series by the points of the abrupt changes, are far better than the model upon the whole temperature series, having examined the quantity, the change trend of the fitting and prediction. Therefore, when we predict the temperature.in the future the first priority is to detect the climate period, to which the future climate will be transfered, and the abrupt change, which will be occurred or not. Our work indicates the modeling scheme based on integrating extension series of the mean generating function is feasible for the simulation and prediction of the temperature series.
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
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