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《Acta Academiae Medicinae Militaris Tertiae》 2007-03
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Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza

QI Li 1 ,LI Ge 1 ,LI Qin 2 ( 1 Epidemiology department of Public Health School, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, 2 Center of Disease Control of Chongqing, Chongqing 400042, China)  
Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and establish a predictive model for influenza to forecast the dynamic trend in order to develop the prevention policy scientifically. Methods Samples which caught influenza from 2002 Jan to 2006 Jun in Chongqing city were subjected. SPSS was used to fit ARIMA model,and Q statistic was used to verify the applicability of the model. Results The model of ARIMA(1,1,1) was established. The statistic of Q was smaller than χ2_α(m), verifying the applicability of this model. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze the influenza incidence and make a short-term prediction.
【CateGory Index】: R511.7
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