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《Journal of The Fourth Military Medical University》 2004-06
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Prediction of malaria incidence in malaria epidemic area with time series models

WEN Liang 1, XU De Zhong 1, LIN Ming He 2, XIA Jie Lai 3, ZHANG Zhi Ying 1, SU Yong Qiang 1 1Department of Epidemiology, 3Department of Health Statistics, School of Preventive Medicine, Fourth Military Medical University, Xian 710033, China, 2Sanitary & Epidemic Prevention Station, Wanning City, Wanning 571500, China  
AIM: To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the malaria incidence in malaria epidemic areas. METHODS: SPSS11.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the month malaria incidence in eight malaria epidemic areas in Wanning County, Hainan Province, from Jan. 1991 to Dec. 2001. Then the constructed model was used to predict the month incidence in 2002 and the prediction was compared with the actual incidence. RESULTS: ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous month incidence from Jan. 1991 to Dec. 2001, and the predicted month incidence in 2002 by the model was consistent with the actual incidence. CONCLUSION: The method of time series analysis can be used to fit exactly the changes of malaria incidence and to predict the incidence trend in future.
【Fund】: 全军“十五”指令性课题 (0 1L0 78) ;; 第四军医大学“创新工程”课题 (CX99F0 0 9);; 第四军医大学博士学位论文课题
【CateGory Index】: R181.3
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