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《Power System Technology》 2003-05
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APPLICATION OF GREY VERHULST MODEL IN MIDDLE AND LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING

ZHANG Fu-sheng1, LIU Fang1, ZHAO Wen-bin1, SUN Zi-an2, JIANG Guang-ying2 (1. School of Electrical Engineering, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian 710049, Shaanxi Province, China; 2. Xian HV Power Supply Bureau, Xian 710032, Shaanxi Province, China)  
The grey system model is a kind of efficient method for long-term load forecasting. However, this method is unperfect, when the load increases according to the curve with shape of alphabet S or the increment of load is in the saturation stage, the load forecasting error by grey system model will be bigger and the forecasting results cannot be accepted in practical application. To solve this problem the grey Verhulst model is introduced into the field of load forecasting and through typical practical examples the application of grey Verhulst model in middle- and long-term load forecasting is presented. The forecasting results show that the grey Verhulst model is applicable, especially, to the circumstance that the load increases according to the curve with shape of alphabet S not only higher forecasting accuracy can be obtained, but also the superiority and the features of grey system model can be reserved.
【CateGory Index】: TM714.1
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