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《Power System Technology》 2004-24
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APPLICATION OF NATURAL FRACTAL IN LOAD FORECASTING

JIANG Zheng-wei (Zhejiang Electric Power Dispatching & Communication Center, Hangzhou 310007, Zhejiang Province, China)  
Traditional load forecasting methods can only describe the macroscopic behavior of original source data series such as the data series of long-term trend, seasonal trend and periodic trend, but it is difficult to build the model of rough data representing the microscopic behavior. Separating the original source data series into the smooth part and rough part respectively and on the basis of building the model for the smooth part by traditional methods, for instance the GM(1,1), the author builds the model for the rough part by natural fractal method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. The calculation results of actual examples show that the built models can fit with the source data series well and possesses good forecasting performance.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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