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《Power System Technology》 2005-11
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APPLICATION OF PARALLEL ADAPTIVE CHAOTIC OPTIMIZATION IN MIDDLE AND LONG TERM ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING

TANG Wei,GAO Chun-cheng (Information and Electrical Engineering College,China Agricultural University, Haidian District,Beijing 100083,China)  
According to the electricity consumption features of different districts, the electricity consumption and incremental electricity consumption are classified, and corresponding models to forecast them are given. Based on the initial value sensitivity of chaotic motion and the analysis of optimal searching process, a parallel adaptive chaotic optimization (PACO) method is proposed. On this basis the parameters of the forecasting model for electricity consumption are determined by use of PACO, and the concrete procedure and main measures to implement the proposed method are presented. The forecasting results of electricity consumption of practical power network show that using the proposed method the parameters of the forecasting models can be rapidly and accurately determined, the forecasting accuracy of incremental electricity consumption is better than that of electricity consumption, and the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting models are verified.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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