Electric Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model
TAN Xian-dong1,HU Zhao-guang2,LI Meng2 (1.School of Business and Administration,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China; 2.State Power Economic Research Institute,Xuanwu District,Beijing 100761,China)
Besides the simulation of electric power policy itself, electric power policy modeling simulates the impacts of electric power policy on other trades as well as the impact of the policies of other trades on electric power industry. On the strength of nonlinear equations, computable general equilibrium (CGE) describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors of economic system, so it offers a very useful method for electric power policy simulation. In this paper, the principal equation modules of CGE are presented; on the basis of sorting out eleven electric power consumption sectors from industrial sectors, the structure of social accounting matrix (SAM) for electric power simulation is described; according to the present situation of RMB revaluation, by use of the input output table of the year of 2002 a SAM is designed; by use of general algebraic modeling system (GAMS), a CGE model used to analyze the impact of change in exchange rate on electric power industry is constructed and the fluctuation of electric power consumption of these sorted out sectors is analyzed while the exchange rate of RMB is reduced by one percent and three percent respectively.