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《Power System Technology》 2008-08
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A Grey Model of Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Period Residual Modification

WU Xing-hua,ZHOU Hui (School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Haidian District,Beijing 100044,China)  
The electricity price curve in electricity market possesses the features of multicycle and strong fluctuation,whereas there is evident error in the prediction by grey GM(1,1) model with exponential growth,for this reason the authors propose a period residual modification based grey price forecasting model,which not only inherits the advantages of grey model but also makes the forecasting curve fluctuated by means of smooth processing of original data,improvement of initial condition and period residual modification. Thus the fitting curve is more close to original data and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. Simulation results validate the feasibility of the proposed method.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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