Full-Text Search：
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Power System Technology》 2008-08
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

A Grey Model of Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Period Residual Modification

WU Xing-hua,ZHOU Hui (School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Haidian District,Beijing 100044,China)  
The electricity price curve in electricity market possesses the features of multicycle and strong fluctuation,whereas there is evident error in the prediction by grey GM(1,1) model with exponential growth,for this reason the authors propose a period residual modification based grey price forecasting model,which not only inherits the advantages of grey model but also makes the forecasting curve fluctuated by means of smooth processing of original data,improvement of initial condition and period residual modification. Thus the fitting curve is more close to original data and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. Simulation results validate the feasibility of the proposed method.
【CateGory Index】： TM715
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 BAI Xiao-li1,LEI Xia1,CHENG Zheng1,LIU Tong2 (1. Sichuan Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China; 2. Sichuan Congming Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Congzhou 611200,China);Review on models of avoiding power purchase risk in power distribution side[J];Power Demand Side Management;2010-02
2 TAN Zhong-fu1,ZHANG Jin-liang1,SHANG Jin-cheng2(1.Institute of Electric Power Economics,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;2.Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,Henan Province,China);Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Dynamic Economics Model[J];Power System Technology;2009-07
3 LI Ran1,CUI Tian-bao1,XIAO Jin-yong2 (1.School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China;2.Huaneng Shang'an Power Plant,Shijiazhuang 050310,Hebei Province,China);Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Cloud Model[J];Power System Technology;2009-17
4 LIU Da1,WANG Er-kang2,NIU Dong-xiao1 (1.School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China; 2.School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China);Application of Wavelet Analysis and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Model Considering Exogenous Variables in Electricity Price Forecast[J];Power System Technology;2009-18
5 SHI Biao1,LI Yu-xia1,YU Xin-hua2,YAN Wang1,LI Na1,MENG Xin1(1.College of Water Resources and Hydro-Electric Engineering,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,Shaanxi Province,China;2.Technical Institute of High Vocations,Qingdao Science and Technology University,Qingdao 261000,Shandong Province,China);Short-Term Electricity Price Forecast Model Based on Adaptive Variable Coefficients Particle Swarm Optimizer and Radial Basis Function Neural Network Hybrid Algorithm[J];Power System Technology;2010-01
6 LIU Xi-chui,SHEN Jiong,LI Yi-guo(School of Energy & Environment,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,Jiangsu Province,China);A Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model for System Marginal Price Forecasting Based on Weighted Double Gaussian Distribution[J];Power System Technology;2010-01
7 ZHAO Huiru,YANG Lu,LI Chunjie,MA Xin(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Research on Prediction to Investment Demand of Power Grid Based on Co-integration Theory and Error Correction Model[J];Power System Technology;2011-09
8 ZHANG Qin;ZHOU Bu-xiang;LIN Nan;NIE Ya-zhuo;School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University;Sichuan Electric Power Vocational Technical College;;Line Loss Rate Forecasting Based on Combination of Grey Model and Neural Network[J];Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Universities for Electric Power System and its Automation;2013-05
9 Wu Tiankui;Wang Bo;Zhou Xiaohui;Zhao Yini;School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology;Business School,Jilin University;;An Improved Grey GM(1,1) Model for Prediction of Fire Losses[J];Mathematical Theory and Applications;2014-01
10 LEI Mingli1,2,FENG Zuren1,2(1.Systems Engineering Institute, Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049,China;2.State Key Laboratory forManufacturing Systems Engineering,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049,China);A Grey Model to Predict Electricity Price with Internal Variable Parameters Identification[J];Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University;2009-08
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHANG Xian, WANG Xi-fan (Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China);Review of the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2006-03
2 ZHAO Qing-bo, ZHOU Yuan-bing, GUO Rong, ZENG Ming (Shandong Electric Power Research Institute, Jinan 250002, Shandong Province, China; Dept. of Electric Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China);APPLICATION OF FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK IN POWER SYSTEM MARGINAL PRICE FORECASTING[J];Power System Technology;2004-07
3 ZHOU Ming1,NIE Yan-li1,LI Geng-yin1,NI Yi-xin2 (1.Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China;2.Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR,China);WAVELET ANALYSIS BASED ARIMA HOURLY ELECTRICITY PRICES FORECASTING APPROACH[J];Power System Technology;2005-09
4 LIN Qi-you1,CHEN Xing-ying1,WANG Zhi-wei2 (1.College of Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China; 2.Jiangsu Electric Power Company,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu Province,China);Application of Data Mining in Electricity Price Forecasting[J];Power System Technology;2006-23
5 WU Xing-hua,ZHOU Hui (School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Haidian District,Beijing 100044,China);Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Subtractive Clustering and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System[J];Power System Technology;2007-19
6 CHENG Xiao-xin, ZHOU Yu-hui (Institute of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China);Research on electricity price prediction based on improved grey model[J];;2006-01
7 Zhang Hui Hu Shigeng Postgraduate; Dept. of Math., HUST, Wuhan 430074, China.;Analysis of Boundary Condition for GM(1,1) Model[J];Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology;2001-04
8 SU Juan,DU Song-huai(China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China);The GM(1,2) short-term spot price forecasting grey model[J];Relay;2006-01
9 HAO Yong\|hong 1,\ HUANG Deng\|yu 2,\ ZHANG Weng\|zhong 3 WANG Xue\|meng 4(1.The College of Environmental and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China) (2.The College of Life Science and Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China) (3.The Committee of Water Resources Management, Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030001, China) (4.Institute for Integrated Survey of Agriculture Resources, Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030006, China);Period Residual Modification of GM(1,1) Modeling and Its Application in Predicting the Spring Discharges[J];Mathematics In Practice and Theory;2003-09
10 LIU Guang-jian, HU San-gao, DAI Jun-liang (North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China);THE CHAOTIC PROPERTY OF SYSTEM MARGINAL PRICE AND ITS FORECASTING[J];Proceedings of the Csee;2003-05
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 QI Xin-an,ZHU Zu-lin(Anhui Radio&TV University,Hefei 230022,China);Grey Correlation Analysis on the Scale of AHTVU's Enrolment of Distance Learners and Developing Trend[J];Journal of Anhui Radio & TV University;2007-03
2 WANG Zhou-sheng(Anhui Broadcasting,Movie and Television College,Hefei 230022,China);An Empirical Analysis of Association Effect between the External Factors and the MICE Industry in Hefei City[J];Journal of Anhui Radio & TV University;2010-04
3 WANG Gui-quan,ZHU Yun-juan(Business School,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China);The Empirical Study on Factors Influencing the Development of Corporate Bonds——Based on the Grey System Theory[J];Journal of Anhui Radio & TV University;2011-01
4 ;A Novel Method for Short-term Power Price Forecasting[J];Anhui Electric Power;2008-03
5 WU Guo-feng;Application of Quadratic Interpolation GM(1,1) Model in Electricity Demand Forecasting[J];Journal of Anhui Vocational & Technical College;2010-02
6 WANG Hui1, SUN Shi-qun1, XIONG Hong-bin2 (1.Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009,China; 2. Hefei Environmental Protection Burean, Hefei 230001,China);The Quantity Grey Forecast of Our City Industrial Waste Emission[J];Anhui Chemical Industry;2006-04
7 QIU Fu-lin,MU Lan (Institute of Political Science,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China);On the Relationship between Urban-Rural Income Gap and Urbanization of Guangdong[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition);2011-03
8 ZHU Chun-jiang et al (Business School, Hehai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098);Study on Structure Optimization of Agriculture Plantation Based on Linear Programming Model[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2006-12
9 MEN Ke-pei et al(College of Mathematics and Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044);Entropy Assessment and Grey Forecast of Regional Economy in Jiangsu Province[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2007-29
10 YE Yan-qiong et al (Key Laboratory of Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510642);Study on the Industrial Structure Optimization and the Allocation of Land Resources in Meizhou City[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2008-34
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Yin Chunjie,Sun Jiejun,Zhang Chenghui School of Control Science and Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,P.R.China;A New Algorithm of Online Monitoring and Fault Prediction for the Battery Set State[A];[C];2007
2 Li Junliang,Xiao Xinping,Mao Shuhua School of Science,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,P.R.China;Grey Bilevel Linear Programming's Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm[A];[C];2008
3 Dai Wenzhan1,Li Junfeng1,2 1.Department of Automatic control,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,HangZhou 310018,P.R.China 2.College of Mechanical Engineering,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,P.R.China;A New Algorithm of Image Edge Detection and Its Application[A];[C];2008
4 LIU jie1,LI Jun-Liang1,2,LIAO Rui-Quan1,21 Petroleum Engineering College,Yangtze University,Jingzhou Hubei 434023 P.R.China 2 CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil&Gas Production,Yangtze University,Jingzhou Hubei 434023 P.R.China;Non-equidistance Generalized Accumulated Grey Forecast Model and Its Application[A];[C];2010
5 LI Junfeng,DAI Wenzhan,PAN Haipeng,GAO Jinfeng Faculty of Mechanical Engineering&Automation,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,HangZhou 31001,P.R.China;On Image Denoising Algorithm Based on the Grey System Theory[A];[C];2010
6 LI Junfeng,DAI Wenzhan,PAN Haipeng Faculty of Mechanical Engineering & Automation,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,HangZhou 310018,P.R.China;On Adaptive Image Denoising Algorithm Based on Grey Degree of Incidence[A];[C];2011
7 DAI Wenzhan~1,LI Yan~1,YANG Aiping~2 1.Institute of Automatic control,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou,310018,P.R.China 2.Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou,310018,P.R.China;Variable Parameter Verhulst Model and Its Optimization Based on GA[A];[C];2011
8 Lai yumin Li ruiguang Yang yingming(1、Yunnan Academy of Scientific and Technical Information Kunming 650051 2、Faculty of Management and Economics of Kunming University of Science and Technology Kunming 650021);Study on the Evaluation Mechanism of Industry Technology Roadmapping[A];[C];2011
9 XIE Jing-hua 1,LIN Cheng-liang2,Xiao Wei3(1 School of Economics,Ningbo Institue of Technology,Zhejiang University,Ningbo,315100)(2 School of Economics,Ningbo Institue of Technology,Zhejiang University,Ningbo,315100)(3 School of Economics,Ningbo Institue of Technology,Zhejiang University,Ningbo,315100);The Research on the Coupling Relationship between the Capability of S&T Innovation and the Development of S&T Service Industry Based on the Gray Correlative Analysis[A];[C];2011
10 LIU An-ying,WEI Fa-jie(School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China);Risk Assessment Model Based on Grey Rough Set[A];[C];2011
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 SHAN JinHui XU KeJun (No.14,P.O.Box 15,Sub-post Office 27,Lanzhou,Gansu 732750,China);A discussion about software fault diagnosis[J];Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science Edition);2007-S1
2 LIU Qiu-hua(Dept of Economic Management,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 210038,China);Decision-making as the Essential management Function[J];Commercial Research;2004-20
3 WANG Miao-lin~(1,2),FU Hua~3,LIU De-chun~1(1.Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of the Upper Yangtze River, Chongqing 400014, China; 2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 3.School of River & Ocean, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China);Predicting model of annual maximum water level[J];Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University;2005-04
4 ZHANG Rui-you~1,HAN Shui~2,ZHANG Jin-zhu~3,WANG Ding-wei~1(1.School of Information Science & Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,China;2.Northeast China Bureau of State Electricity Regulatory Commission of China,Shenyang 110006,China;3.Northeastern Electric Power Research Institute,Shenyang 110006,China.);LMP Calculation on PJM Power Market and Its Trial in China[J];JOURNAL OF NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY;2005-11
5 LIN Zhi-ling,GAO Li-qun,ZHANG Da-peng,ZHANG Qiang (School of Information Science & Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,China.;Forecasting System Marginal Price of Electricity by Dynamic Neural Network[J];JOURNAL OF NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY;2006-10
6 Liu Yaan Fan Wei Guan Xiaohong(Xi'an Jiaotong University 710049 China);Dynamic Program Solving Asset Allocation Problem for Energy Demander in Power Market[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2001-03
7 Liu Yan Tan Zhongfu Liu Mingming Yang Lijun Wang Chengwen (North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China University of Shanghai for Science and Technology Shanghai 200093 China Beijing Electric Design Institute Beijing 100055 China);Optimal Bidding Strategy Based on Markov Decision Process for Generation Companies[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2005-12
8 Lei Xia1,2 Liu Junyong1 Du Liang3 Chen Ye1 (1. Sichuan University Chengdu 610065 China 2. Xihua University Chengdu 610039 China 3. Sichuan Electric Vocational and Technical College Chengdu 610072 China);Optimal Price Determination Based on Stochastic Chance-Constrained Programming[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2008-12
9 Xie Pinjie Tan Zhongfu Wang Mianbin Hou Jianchao(North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China);Spot Market Optimal Decision-Making Model of Purchase Electricity for Power-Supplying Company Based on CVaR Model[J];Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society;2009-04
10 WENG Chen-yu,CHEN Wei-rong,LUO Xiao-an(School of Electrical Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China);Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Analogue Search and RBF Neural Network[J];Electric Power Science and Engineering;2007-01
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 XIAO Lin1,ZHANG Jing2,ZENG Ming3,DONG Jun3(1.Chongqing Nan'an Electric Power Supply Bureau,Chongqing 400060,China;2.Chongqing Shiqu Electric Power Supply Bureau,Chongqing 400015,China;3.North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China);Neural networks short-term forecasting of electricity price based on wavelet decomposition and homo-layer series combination[J];Power Demand Side Management;2011-04
2 LU Shi-jun,LI Xiang,LIN Yan-ting (School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Analysis on Substation Operating Costs Based on Cloud Model[J];Power System Technology;2010-06
3 SHI Yuzhan,XIE Kaigui,HU Bo(State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology(Chongqing University),Shapingba District,Chongqing 400044,China);Artificial Neural Network-Based Transmission Congestion Forecasting Model in Electricity Market Environment[J];Power System Technology;2011-03
4 ZHAO Huiru,YANG Lu,LI Chunjie,MA Xin(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Research on Prediction to Investment Demand of Power Grid Based on Co-integration Theory and Error Correction Model[J];Power System Technology;2011-09
5 ZHAO Shasha1,Lü Zhilin1,WU Jiekang2,CHENG Pengfei1(1.School of Electrical Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China; 2.Faculty of Automation,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong Province,China);A Method to Evaluate Efficiency of Fossil-Fuel Generating Plants Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and Cloud Model[J];Power System Technology;2012-04
6 DENG Jiajia,HUANG Yuansheng,SONG Gaofeng(School of Economonics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China);Day-ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Time Series Model Based on Nonparametric Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity[J];Power System Technology;2012-04
7 FAN Decheng,WANG Shaohua,ZHANG Wei(School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China);Research on Prediction of China's Electric Power Demand Under Low-Carbon Economy Target[J];Power System Technology;2012-07
8 FAN Decheng,WANG Shaohua,ZHANG Wei(School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China);Study on Application of Seasonal Cycle Model in China's Power Load Forecasting[J];Power System Technology;2012-07
9 JIANG Chun-hai,LI Shu,TIAN Lu-lu(Centre for Industrial and Business Organization,Northeast University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China);China's Thermal Power Demand Forecast in “Twelfth Five-Year” Period——Based on ARIMA Model[J];Collected Essays on Finance and Economics;2012-05
10 LING Wuneng,HANG Naishan,LI Ruqi(School of Electrical Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China);Short-term wind power forecasting based on cloud SVM model[J];Electric Power Automation Equipment;2013-07
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Huang Rixing,K ang Chongqing,Xia Qing Tsinghua University,Beijing 1 0 0 0 84,China;SYSTEM MARGINAL PRICE FORECASTING IN ELECTRICITY MARKET[J];AUTOMATION OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS;2000-22
2 Yang Li,Qiu Jiaju,Jiang Daozhuo Zhejiang University,Hangzhou310 0 2 7,China;BPN BASED DAY-AHEAD UNCONSTRAINED MARKET CLEARING PRICE FORECASTING MODEL[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2001-19
3 Liu Zhengguo1 ,Fu Xiangming1 ,Gao Fuying2 ,Wang L iqun3,Zheng Miaorong4 Wang Weiming1 ,H u Yufu1 ,Chen Wujun1 ,Yang Guofu1 1.Ningbo Siwei Tech L td,Ningbo315 6 0 0 ,China 2 .Dispatching & Comm unication Center,Zhejiang Province Electrical Power Com;FORECASTING MARKET-CLEARING PRICE IN ZHEJIANG GENERATION MARKET USING NEURAL NETWORK[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2002-09
4 Li Caihua 1, Guo Zhizhong 1, Wang Zhiwei 2 (1.Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China; 2.Beijing Xuji Electric Co Ltd, Beijing 100085, China);SHORT-TERM MARGINAL PRICE FORECASTING WITH HYBRID MODEL[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2002-21
5 Zhang Chunhui, Min Yong, Ding Renjie, Yu Qingguang, Wei Shaoyan (Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China);APPLICATION OF THE CASCADED CORRELATION NETWORK TO FORECAST THE MARGINAL CLEARING PRICE IN POWER MARKET[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2003-03
6 Wang Xifan, Wang Xiuli (Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049);PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION SIMULATION METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2003-08
7 Huang Minxiang 1, Zhao Xueshun 1, Ni Bo 1, Ye Jianbin 1, Gao Deming 2, Yu Weiying 2 (1. Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China) (2. Huangzhou Banshan Power Generation Ltd, Hangzhou 310000, China);FORECASTING ON MARKET-CLEARING PRICE BASED ON BIDDING CURVE DRIVEN MODEL[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2003-19
8 Hu Zhaoyang 1, Sun Weizhen 2, Wang Zhen 1, Wang Kangyuan 1, Gan Deqiang 1, Han Zhenxiang 1 (1. Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China) (2. Zhejiang Electric Power Dispatching and Communication Center, Hangzhou 310007, China);SHORT-TERM, MEDIUM-TERM AND LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY PRICE WITH CONSIDERATION TO MARKET POWER[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2003-22
9 Wei Ping , Li Junli , Chen Gang , Zhang Yongji (Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China) (Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China);FORECASTING MCP USING A WAVELET-IMPROVED NEURAL NETWORK METHOD[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2004-11
10 Kang Chongqing, Xia Qing, Zhang Boming Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;REVIEW OF POWER SYSTEM LOAD FORECASTING AND ITS DEVELOPMENT[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2004-17
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved