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《Power System Technology》 2013-01
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Uncertainty Estimation of Wind Power Prediction Result Based on Wind Process Method

WANG Zheng,WANG Weisheng,LIU Chun,FENG Shuanglei(China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)  
Taking wind farms actually operated in various areas of China as the object and the implementation of optimal uncertainty estimation of wind power prediction results as the goal,a wind process method-based approach to estimate the uncertainty of wind power prediction results is proposed and mathematical models for different wind processes are given.To effectively identify prediction errors of different characteristics,the prediction error data is divided by wind process method and power level division method.Adopting nonparametric regression method to fit probability density distribution of the error,a better fitting result is attained.The advancement of the proposed method is verified by actual wind farm data;and comparing the proposed estimation method with the estimation method based on normal distribution optimized fitting,the results show that the evaluation indices obtained by the proposed method are better than those from the latter.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(60934005)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM614
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