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《Power System Technology》 2014-02
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Uncertainty Evaluation of Wind Power Prediction Considering Impacts of Power Curve and Predicted Wind Speed

WANG Bo;FENG Shuanglei;LIU Chun;China Electric Power Research Institute;  
The wind speed from numerical weather prediction and power curve of wind power generation units,which affect wind power prediction uncertainty,are analyzed.In the aspects of time and wind speed level the quantitative evaluation uncertainty of predicted wind speed is performed and two kinds of synthetic uncertainty evaluation models are proposed.The theoretical power curve of wind turbine and the uncertainty of its power curve under actual operation as well as the impact of inherent characteristic of the power curve on uncertainty of power prediction are analyzed.On this basis,an industrialization model for uncertainty evaluation of power prediction is put forward.The reliability and accuracy of the proposed model in engineering application are verified by case study.
【Fund】: 国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A101)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM614
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