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《Zoological Research》 2009-05
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Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-headed Geese (Anser indicus) Around Qinghai Lake Region and Trend Analysis

ZHANG Yao-nan1, HAO Mei-yu1, LEI Fu-ming2, XING Zhi3, HOU Yuan-sheng3, LUO Ze4 (1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. The Institute of Zoology , CAS, Beijing100101, China; 3.Qinghai Lake National Nature Reserve, Xining 810000, China; 4. Computer Network Information Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China)  
Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) is animportant migratory goose species group in the Qinghai lakeregion. Population dynamics of the group provides the foundation data of decision-making in Bar-headed geeseprotection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was constructed in Qinghai lake region regarding the dynamics with STELLA graphical modeling software. Parameters included in the model described mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigration, emigration and mortality based on longterm observation data. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of theperiodic time bar-headed geese stay in Qinghai lake. The next 25 years simulated population change results showed that the trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. Meanwhile,the population was simulated assuming calamity strikes in 2010. The model and simulated results of the bar-headed goosepopulation are reliable according to calibrated results using observed data from 2006 to 2008, and the method ofmodeling bar-headed goose population provides some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region.Finally, suggestions of protection for the bar-headed goose have been proposed based on above results.
【Fund】: 国家基础科学人才培养科学基金(J0630966);; 中国科学院信息化专项项目(INFO-115-D02)
【CateGory Index】: Q958
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