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《Earth Science Frontiers》 2010-06
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Analysis of runoff variation in the upper Yangtze River and its impact on the Three Gorges Project

Zhang Yuandong1,Wei Jiahua21.Water Resources Management Centre,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China2.State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China  
On the basis of monitoring data series from 1881 to 2006,the variation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was analyzed.The result shows that the average annual runoff after 1990 is obviously higher than that before 1990.The most drastic decline of monthly runoff occurred in September and October.The main reasons are the increase in water consumption and the climate changes.According to the analysis and the prediction results of water resources development,it can be known that the average annual water consumption increased by 0.6 billion from 1998 to 2004.The prediction result also indicates that,owing to the increase of water consumption in the near future,the construction of many hydraulic and hydropower projects,and the implementation of inter-basin water transfer projects,the annual runoff of and the monthly inflow into the Three Gorges Reservoir will change notably.These changes may exert considerable impact on water storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir,power generation,navigation and so on in flood recession period,especially in drought years.Model simulations show that the increasing development of water resources will exert considerable influence on the power generation of the Three Gorges Power Plant.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B03)
【CateGory Index】: TV121
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