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The structure and mechanism of thermal disaster chains and the trend analysis of strong earthquakes in North China

LI Dewei;HAO Haijian;LIU Jiao;ZHOU Yang;CHEN Guifan;LIANG Sang;Faculty of Earth Sciences,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);Institute of Geological Survey,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);Disaster Research Center,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);  
North China shows strong crustal thermal activities and frequent serious natural disasters.Natural disasters in North China formed thermal disaster chains characterized by regionality,group activation,continued occurrence,and correlation.The typical structure of North China thermal disaster chains is that the over year drought-abnormal path typhoon-strong rainfall-abnormal sea ice-strong earthquake-abnormal rainfall,which was controlled by"thermal rivers"formed by uneven flowing and the regular accumulation and release of thermal energy in the weakened lower crust derived from Bohai Sea and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The radial flow system of lower crust from the Bohai Sea is correlated with the mantle asthenosphere diapirism.The ongoing thermal disaster chains in North China has orderly developed into earthquake stage,and several strong earthquakes will occur on the 6impacting areas of 6"thermal rivers"in the ductile lower crust during recent five years,and the most dangerous areas are the impacting areas of the lower crustal"thermal river"flowing toward NE direction through the Liaodong Bay and the converging area between the Linfen-Taiyuan-Datong lower crustal"thermal river"and the lower crustal"thermal river"flowing through the Bohai Bay-Tongxian-Shahe.The earthquake precursors related to thermal fluid activity should be systematically monitored for short-term and impending earthquake prediction.It is of great significance to find out the"thermal rivers"in North China ductile lower crust and to systematically develop geothermal energy of the"thermal rivers"for economic development and for reducing disaster and emission.
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