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《Earth Science Frontiers》 2013-06
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Short-term prediction and rheo-tectonic analysis for Dujiangyan earthquake (M_S4.1)

ZENG Zuoxun;WU Dabing;WANG Jie;HE Chicheng;HUANG Qian;Three Gorges Research Center for Geo-hazard(Ministry of Education),China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);Faculty of Earth Sciences,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan);Huazhong Tectonomechanical Research Center;Sino-Canadian Friendship Elementary School;  
At 22:23 of June 2,2013,Wu Dabing from Wanzhou,Chongqing emailed Zeng Zuoxun a cloud picture taken by a netizen,brilliance vision,from Mianyang,Sichuan at 19:38of June 1,2013.He primarily identified the cloud picture corresponding to the Longmenshan area by using the‘correspondence between cloud and ground'method created by himself.In the email at 11:44of June 3,2013,Zeng Zuoxun asked Wu Dabing‘to label a few place names' and‘to label the longitude and latitude of the converging center of the rope clouds,guessing it will be an epicenter',and presented that there was another converging center at the north part of the picture area.At 15:17of the same day,Wu Dabing emailed Zeng Zuoxun the cloud picture labeled some place names and the longitude and latitude(31.27°N,103.90°E)of the south converging center of the rope clouds.There is a definite place name at the north converging center although no longitude and latitude labeled there.At 17:16,June 3,2013,in his reply email expressing appreciation to Wu Dabing for the labeling of the place names and the longitude and latitude,Zeng Zuoxun made a prediction,on the basis of the cloud picture labeled,the strip degasification along the north part of the Longmenshan fracture zone and the satellite gravity anomalies of the area,that the epicenter would be in(31°N,104°E),the magnitude would be in MS5.5±0.5,the occurring time would be in 2 months.At 7:39,July 8,2013,an earthquake occurred at the border between Dujiangyan city and Wenchuan county(31.3°N,103.6°E)with magnitude of MS4.1.We name it Dujiangyan earthquake in the article.The epicenter is in accordance with the south converging center of the rope cloud and with only a distance of 50.6km from the predicted epicenter.The occurring time of the Dujiangyan earthquake fell into the time window of the two-month prediction.The magnitude of the Dujiangyan earthquake is a little bigger than the magnitude predicted with a difference of MS0.9.The comparison between the three key elements of the predicted earthquake and the Dujiangyan earthquake indicates that this is a successful short-term prediction with the observation of earthquake cloud and degasification of the earth and the analysis of the satellite gravity anomalies.It is worth to note that the two sets of rope cloud consisted of two converging centers.At one center of them the Dujiangyan earthquake occurred and at the other one there will still be the possibility to occur a next middle-strong earthquake.Aprimary assumption is that the arcuate rope clouds are formed due to the super-low vibration of the local ground surface acting on the water vapour and dust in the sky.On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the tectonic setting,satellite gravity anomaly and the focal mechanism in this area,we consider that the BeichuanYingxiu right-lateral thrust fault is the earthquake-triggering which triggered the Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake.We think that the Dujiangyan MS4.1earthquake is an aftershock of the Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake and both have the same formation mechanism.Under the northward indentation of the India Plate,the Songpan-Ganze Block was pushed eastwards to Sichuan Basin,causing Beichuan-Yingxiu thrusting with right-lateral slip and resulting in a sudden release of the energy accumulated at the edge of the boundary between differential rheological layers.
【Fund】: 国家“985”创新平台建设项目子课题“地震及其次生地质灾害研究”;; 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230206)
【CateGory Index】: P315
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