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《Ground Water》 2012-04
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Study on 3D Arid Variable Joint Probability Distribution

ZHAO Zhi-long(Shaanxi Provincial Hydro-geological and Water Resources Investigation Bureau Xi'an 710068,Shaanxi)  
Study variables Method of Deriving the joint distribution of drought characteristics.Which select drought duration,drought intensity and the intensity peak is belong to hydrological drought characteristics variables.For univariate marginal distribution parameters,the moment method,the probability weighting method,the maximum likelihood method and genetic algorithm are applied to calculate and optimize.The article is based on application of the test,Kolmogorov-Smirnov and other 6 methods to test the single variable distribution of the goodness of fit.Application of Pearson's classical correlation coefficient,Spearman's rank correlation coefficient,Kendall's Chi-Plots and K-Plots carry on dependencies metrics between the variables.Choose four kinds of commonly used three-dimensional Archimedean Copula functions and carry on arid characteristics of variable joint distribution fitting.It is based on RMSE,AIC and BIC criteria to select the optimal copula.Bootstrap method based on the Rosenblatt transformation Square test of three-dimensional copula,the model is applied to the Beiluo shaped head station runoff series of Weihe River.The result shows Gumbel-Hougaard copula fitting effect of the best,you can describe the joint distribution of Luohe shaped head station three-dimensional arid variable.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(50879070 51179160);; 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110204110017)
【CateGory Index】: P426.616
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