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《Earth and Environment》 2015-06
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Symmetry Characteristics and Trend Judgment of Drought in Anhui Province,China

TANG Baoqi;YAN Junping;CAO Yongwang;LIU Yonglin;College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University;  
Based on meteorological data from 14 stations in Anhui Province,China during 1961 to 2013,using the Kringing spatial interpolation method,Mann-kendall mutation test,empirical orthogonal function and precipitation anomaly percentage,patial and temporal characteristics of precipitation were studied and trend of drought in Anhui Province was predicted.Results show that(1)during the past 53 years,average annual precipitation of Anhui Province has increased,but with a process of decline recently;(2)precipitation decreases gradually from south to north.Spatial distribution of the first mode shows reverse trend between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River.Besides,spatial distribution of the second mode shows that the north of the Huahe River is low while the other region is high.The third mode shows that the precipitation in the Northern Anhui Province rises while the other region decrease;and(3)severe drought in Anhui Province complys with commensurability and time symmetry,and there exist possibilities of great disasters in 2015 and around 2016,with probabilities being respectively 55.56%and 61.1%.The study is of great significance to the agricultural and economic development in Anhui Province.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41171090);; 国家社会科学基金项目(14AZD094)
【CateGory Index】: P426.616
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