FORECASTING OF ROCK SLOPE DISPLACEMENT BASED ON GM(1,1)OPTIMIZED MODEL
WU De-bin,XU Wei-ya (Research Institute of Geo-technical Engineering, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
Rock slope system is defined as a typical gray system, whose development of displacement can be modeled by the gray forecasting model. Although there have been many successful examples of the original GM(1,1) model, the cases of excessive forecasting errors are also existed. Therefore, it must be optimized. Speedup convergence of the step-by-step iterative method of GM(1,1) optimal model is defined, the concave-concave-convex features of which are well coincided with the original data sequence. The settling-volumes and fissuring-volumes of the observational point G1 in the Mabukan rock slope are predicted and analyzed by using self-programmed procedure. It can be concluded that the calculating precision of the step-by step iterative method of GM(1,1) optimal model is better than that of both the original GM (1,1) model and the background value structure method of GM(1,1) optimal model. The displacement trend of the rock slope is better defined.
【CateGory Index】： TU457