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《Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation》 2006-02
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FORECAST OF RAINFALL CALAMITY IN THE ISOLATED OASIS,SOUTH OF TARIM BASIN BASED ON GM(1,1) MODEL

TANG Jian,JIANG Hong,HE Bin-yu(College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xingjian University,Urumqi 830046,China)  
Tarim Basin is located in the northwest China.We have chosen Ming Fen county that is the isolated oasis on south of Tarim Basin as the studying area,after verifying the validity of the data,and utilized rainfall data of 1980~1999 Years,predicted the precipitation of this area by Grey System theory,and by building the GM(1,1) model to predict the year of the next dry season,and have offered information for predicting precipitation.The result shows that this area's next dry season would take place from 2006 to 2007.This has actual meanings to local climate resources of rational utilization,and can offer certain help to study arid district climate change.
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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