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《Acta Seismologica Sinica》 2004-02
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PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF THE STOCHASTIC AMR MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE STUDY OF SEVERAL STRONG EARTHQUAKES

Wang Lifeng 1) Ma Li 1) David Vere Jones 2) Chen Shijun 3) 1) Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China 2) Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington P. O. Box 600, New Zealand 3) Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province, Ji′nan 250014, China  
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaike′s AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金 ( 0 4 2 0 0 2 );; “十五”项目中长期强地震预测资助;; 国家自然科学基金( 4 0 0 74 0 13 4 0 1340 10 )资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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