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《Acta Seismologica Sinica》 2007-02
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EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE COULOMB FAILURE STRESS IN NORTHEASTERN QINGHAI-XIZANG (TIBETAN) PLATEAU AND ITS EFFECT ON LARGE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

Wan Yongge1, 2) Shen Zhengkang1, 3) Zeng Yuehua4) Sheng Shuzhong5)1) State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China2) Institute of Disaster Prevention of Science and Technology, Sanhe 065201, China 3) Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles CA 90095-1567, USA4) US Geology Survey, Golden, CO 80401, USA 5) Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China  
We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes (M≥7.0) investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeast Tibetan Plateau.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(40374012 40334042);; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2001CB711005)资助.
【CateGory Index】: P315
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