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《Journal of Seismological Research》 1981-01
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TNE STATISTICAL Indexes OF SEISMICITY AND THE PROBABILITY PREDICTION FOR THE TIME OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

Feng De-Yi Gu Jin-Ping Luo Rui-Ming Shcng Guo-Ying(The Scismological Itlstiludc of Laticlioti,state Scismological Bureau)  
In this paper,we used six basic statistical indexes, the number of earthqua kes N,the maximum magnitude M,the coefficient r in the relational formula for the frequence and the magnitude,and their variation values with time N,M,r,taken in a given region and in three continuative time intervals for estimating the total probablity Pt of the large earthquake occurring next time interval.P1 may be used to predict the time of large earthquake occurrence in this region. For instance,we studied the earthquakes with MS≥4.5 occurred in the Yinchuari-Songfan section of north-south seismic zone in China(prediction tern were in amontn)and the earthquakes with MS≥7.0 occurred in the two provinces (yunnan and Sichuan province) west in China (prediction term were in a year.) The primary results showed this method is useful in pratical earthquake prediction
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