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《Fudan Journal(Social Sciences Edition)》 2005-03
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Study on Inter-Provincial Migration's Influence on Regional Economy Development in China

WANG Gui-xin1 WEI Xing1 SHEN Jian-fa2(1. Institute of Population Research, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433; 2. Department of Geography andResource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)  
Based on the hypothetic model of interaction between inter-provincial migration and regional economy development, which distinguishes East Region and Middle-west Region, this paper constructs a “Cobb-Douglas” production function including inter-provincial migration according to the neoclassic growth theory and Schultz's human capital theory, analyzing the influence and contribution of inter-provincial migration since the reform of China upon the regional economy development in 1990's. This research finds that: similar to the interaction relationship between them from the viewpoint of time series analysis, the influence of inter-provincial migration on economy development significantly reveals synchronous instantaneous effect and asynchronous cumulate effect, the latter of which is much more intense. The paper also shows that inter-provincial migration's synchronous instantaneous effect and asynchronous cumulate effect upon regional economy development represented a positive boost in 1990's of East Region, whereas these effects represented a negative influence in early 1990's of Middle-west Region and a positive influence in later 1990's. The inter-provincial migration during 1996—2000 exhibited a close positive relationship to all regions' economy development. It seems to be a reasonable pattern that most of inter-provincial migration are non-residents, in order to control and reduce the difference between East Region and West Region.
【Fund】: 国务院人口普查办公室第五次人口普查重点招标项目“改革开放以来中国省际人口迁移与经济发展互动关系的定量研究”;; 教育部“十五”规划项目“改革开放以来中国人口迁移模式研究 (批准号 :0 1JA84 0 0 1 0 )”;; 香港中文大学研究基金 (编号 :2 0 2 0 6 5 9)资助。
【CateGory Index】: C924.24
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