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《Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition)》 2007-10
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Empirical Analysis of the Demand of Rail Freight Transport in China on Basis of VAR Model

WEN Shu-sheng1,2,YE Huai-zhen1(1.Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 630031,China;2.Chongqing Institute of Technology,Chongqing 400050,China)  
With the rapid development of road and other transport modes in China,the railway freight transport is confronted with great challenge.So,the relations of rail freight transport,development of national economy and extension of railway become focuses.This paper makes a cointegreting VAR model according to the data from Chinese Statistical Year Book.On the basis of the model of the long-run and short-run equilibrium of rail freight demand are analyzed,The result shows that the rail freight transport in China has a stable and low elastic coefficient of income and a high but unstable elastic coefficient of supply in long-run.In short dynamics,the national economy is the first factor affecting rail freight demand and in the second term the innovation reaches a top point.Extension of railway has little effect on rail freight transport.The innovations from rail freight transport and railway extension has little impulse on national economy.Rail freight is the important factor affecting extension of rail-way with a third-term top,but GDP has a little impulse on it.Further analysis on the result and suggestion on policy are made.
【CateGory Index】: F532
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