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《Environmental Science and Technology》 2004-01
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A Preliminary Study on Application of Chaos Theory to Prediction of River Water Quality

XU Min, ZENG Guang-ming, SU Xiao-kang(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hunan University, Changsha 410082)  
On the basis of chaos theory, phase space reconstruction and embedding theory, time series of dissolved oxygen of the Lianshui River are analyzed and attractors dimension and Lyapunov exponent are calculated as well. The results show the chaotic property of the time series of river water quality in terms of DO. It appears that the seemingly irregular movement, but intrinsic orderliness of the system (characterized by maximal Lyapunov exponent) has indicated that short-term forecasting of the change of water quality is feasible. This paper describes the use of a chaos phase space mode linear regression method to forecast DO of the river. Some conclusions are instructive to environmental management in the river basin.
【Fund】: 国家863高技术资助项目(2001AA644020);; 国家自然科学基金项目(70171055、50179011);; 2000年度高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划项目
【CateGory Index】: X832
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